South America: Argentina forecast to harvest 3.8-4.4 mln tonnes of barley this season
The Argentinean government – and the malting industry - are still optimistic about the barley crop, 4.4 mln tonnes of fair quality, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported last month.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is much more pessimistic, however, expecting an acreage of 950 thousand ha, a crop of 3.8 mln tonnes, a crop rating of 83% poor in the south of the Buenos Aires province with yield declines up to 50%, plus abandoned crops.
The north recorded beneficial rains, but altogether pessimism has grown during the past weeks. The new government is anticipated to impose export taxes of 20% on barley and 35% on malt shipments abroad, in the meantime the markets will be rather passive.
Uruguay reports a good growing season and forecasts a crop of 500 thousand tonnes vs. 638 thousand tonnes average of the past 3 years, due to a smaller acreage.
The harvest has started in Brazil – Parana and Rio Grande do Sul forecasts are for good yields and qualities, total crop is expected to reach 430 thousand tonnes.
Chile will harvest much later, crop forecast is 100 thousand tonnes.
It will depend on the Argentinean crop, whether the South American malting barley demand of almost 3 mln tonnes can be supplied from within the continent, however, it looks doubtful, the H. M. Gauger GmbH analysts said.
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